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Market Signal

S&P 500 Earnings Yield vs 10Y Treasury

A monthly valuation chart that compares what stocks are offering in earnings yield versus what Treasuries are offering in bond yield, which helps frame how generous or thin the equity risk premium looks.

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Historical Context

Toggle the market-event markers above when you want to line recent regime shifts up with the signal.

Mar 1, 2000 Dot-com peak captures one of the most extreme stock-versus-bond valuation stretches
Dec 1, 2008 Fed cuts to near zero as the post-crisis rate regime begins
Mar 16, 2020 COVID panic across global markets
Mar 1, 2022 Fed hiking cycle starts to reset the stock-versus-bond valuation tradeoff
Mar 16, 2022 Fed hiking cycle begins
Mar 10, 2023 SVB failure sparks banking stress

How To Read It

  • When the earnings-yield line is well above the 10-year yield, equities have a larger implied yield cushion versus bonds.
  • When the gap compresses, valuations are getting richer relative to what investors can earn in Treasuries.
  • This is a monthly chart, so it is best for regime context rather than short-term trading noise.
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