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S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium

The S&P 500 earnings yield minus the 10-year Treasury yield, condensed into one line to show when the implied equity valuation cushion is wide or thin.

Monthly · through Oct 1, 2026
Data & methodology
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Older events · Members

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Dates & readable data

Raw values in the selected chart window

Selected historical events

Curated anchors for market context, rather than a complete news feed. Toggle markers above to place them on the chart.

Oct 29, 1929 Black Tuesday: the 1929 crash that opened the Great Depression
Oct 19, 1987 Black Monday: the S&P 500 loses 20% in a single day
Mar 10, 2000 Dot-com bubble peaks as the Nasdaq closes above 5,000
Sep 17, 2001 Wall Street reopens after the September 11 attacks
Sep 15, 2008 Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy as the financial crisis peaks
Mar 9, 2009 Financial-crisis bear market bottoms
May 6, 2010 Flash Crash: the Dow drops almost 1,000 points in minutes
Aug 8, 2011 S&P strips the US of its AAA credit rating
Aug 24, 2015 China's yuan devaluation sparks a global flash crash
Jun 24, 2016 UK votes to leave the EU
Mar 16, 2020 COVID panic across global markets
Mar 16, 2022 Fed starts its fastest hiking cycle in four decades
Mar 10, 2023 Silicon Valley Bank fails and sparks a banking scare
Sep 18, 2024 Fed starts cutting with a half-point move
Nov 6, 2024 Trump wins the election: stocks, the dollar, yields, and bitcoin jump
Apr 3, 2025 Liberation Day tariffs trigger a global crash; the April 9 pause sparks a record rebound
Oct 10, 2025 Trump threatens 100% tariffs on China; crypto sees record liquidations
Feb 28, 2026 US and Israel strike Iran; Hormuz traffic halts and oil has its biggest month since 1988
Apr 8, 2026 US-Iran ceasefire sends oil sharply lower
Jun 5, 2026 Chip rout and a hot jobs report revive rate-hike fears; Nasdaq's worst day since April 2025

How To Read It

  • A wider positive spread means the index offers more earnings yield over the 10-year Treasury; a narrower or negative spread means that cushion is thin.
  • Because both inputs are monthly, this chart is designed for valuation regimes rather than short-term timing.
  • Treat it as a simple relative-valuation spread, not as a forecast of future stock returns or a full dividend-inclusive expected-return model.
Next step Charts show what moved. NASDUCK asks why.

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