← Browse all charts Chart intent How much earnings-yield cushion are stocks offering over the 10-year Treasury?

Market Signal

S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium

The S&P 500 earnings yield minus the 10-year Treasury yield, condensed into one line to show when the implied equity valuation cushion is wide or thin.

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The latest series values are listed below the chart. Visible-window CSV and full-history JSON downloads are available above.

Historical Context

Toggle the market-event markers above when you want to line recent regime shifts up with the signal.

Mar 16, 2020 COVID panic across global markets
Mar 16, 2022 Fed hiking cycle begins
Mar 10, 2023 SVB failure sparks banking stress

How To Read It

  • A wider positive spread means the index offers more earnings yield over the 10-year Treasury; a narrower or negative spread means that cushion is thin.
  • Because both inputs are monthly, this chart is designed for valuation regimes rather than short-term timing.
  • Treat it as a simple relative-valuation spread, not as a forecast of future stock returns or a full dividend-inclusive expected-return model.
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