← Browse all charts Chart intent What is the bond market pricing for inflation over the next five years?

Market Signal

5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate

A market-implied inflation chart that tracks the 5-year breakeven rate, which helps separate growth scares from inflation scares when rates start driving the tape.

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The latest series values are listed below the chart. Visible-window CSV and full-history JSON downloads are available above.

Historical Context

Toggle the market-event markers above when you want to line recent regime shifts up with the signal.

Mar 16, 2020 COVID panic across global markets
Mar 16, 2022 Fed hiking cycle begins
Jun 10, 2022 Hot CPI shock reignites inflation fear across rates markets
Mar 10, 2023 SVB failure sparks banking stress

How To Read It

  • Rising breakevens usually mean inflation expectations are firming, while falling breakevens usually point to softer nominal-growth expectations.
  • This chart is most useful when yields are moving because it helps tell you whether the move is about inflation, growth, or both.
  • Pair it with the 10-year yield and the yield curve because rates matter more once you know what kind of macro message they are sending.
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