← Browse all charts Chart intent What is the bond market pricing for inflation over the next five years?
Market Signal
5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
A market-implied inflation chart that tracks the 5-year breakeven rate, which helps separate growth scares from inflation scares when rates start driving the tape.
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The latest series values are listed below the chart. Visible-window CSV and full-history JSON downloads are available above.
Historical Context
Toggle the market-event markers above when you want to line recent regime shifts up with the signal.
How To Read It
- Rising breakevens usually mean inflation expectations are firming, while falling breakevens usually point to softer nominal-growth expectations.
- This chart is most useful when yields are moving because it helps tell you whether the move is about inflation, growth, or both.
- Pair it with the 10-year yield and the yield curve because rates matter more once you know what kind of macro message they are sending.
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