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← Browse all charts Chart intent Is the long-end yield move coming from expected short rates or term premium?

Market Signal

10-Year Treasury Term Premium Decomposition

A monthly decomposition of the fitted 10-year Treasury yield into the expected average short-rate component and the estimated ACM term premium.

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How To Read It

  • Term premium is estimated by a model rather than directly observed, so focus on its direction and regime instead of treating any single reading as exact.
  • A rising term premium with a stable expected short-rate component means investors are demanding more compensation for holding long-duration bonds.
  • The fitted yield equals the expected short-rate component plus term premium, which makes the source of a long-yield move visible in one chart.
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