← Browse all charts Is the long-end yield move coming from expected short rates or term premium?

10-Year Treasury Term Premium Decomposition

A monthly decomposition of the fitted 10-year Treasury yield into the expected average short-rate component and the estimated ACM term premium.

Monthly · through Sep 30, 2026

Data & methodology

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Dates & readable data

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Selected historical events

Curated anchors for market context, rather than a complete news feed. Toggle markers above to place them on the chart.

Sep 15, 2008 Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy as the financial crisis peaks

Aug 8, 2011 S&P strips the US of its AAA credit rating

May 22, 2013 Taper tantrum: Bernanke flags slower bond buying

Mar 16, 2020 COVID panic across global markets

Mar 16, 2022 Fed starts its fastest hiking cycle in four decades

Mar 10, 2023 Silicon Valley Bank fails and sparks a banking scare

Sep 18, 2024 Fed starts cutting with a half-point move

Nov 6, 2024 Trump wins the election: stocks, the dollar, yields, and bitcoin jump

Apr 3, 2025 Liberation Day tariffs trigger a global crash; the April 9 pause sparks a record rebound

Feb 28, 2026 US and Israel strike Iran; Hormuz traffic halts and oil has its biggest month since 1988

Apr 8, 2026 US-Iran ceasefire sends oil sharply lower

Term premium is estimated by a model rather than directly observed, so focus on its direction and regime instead of treating any single reading as exact.
A rising term premium with a stable expected short-rate component means investors are demanding more compensation for holding long-duration bonds.
The fitted yield equals the expected short-rate component plus term premium, which makes the source of a long-yield move visible in one chart.

Next step Charts show what moved. NASDUCK asks why.

Rates, the dollar, oil and gold all end up in the Nasdaq-100 eventually. NASDUCK follows that trail once a week and keeps score on its own calls.